Multiplicative random walk Metropolis-Hastings on the real line

In this article we propose multiplication based random walk Metropolis Hastings (MH) algorithm on the real line. We call it the random dive MH (RDMH) algorithm. This algorithm, even if simple to apply, was not studied earlier in Markov chain Monte Carlo literature. The associated kernel is shown to have standard properties like irreducibility, aperiodicity and Harris recurrence under some mild assumptions. These ensure basic convergence (ergodicity) of the kernel. Further the kernel is shown to be geometric ergodic for a large class of target densities on $\mathbb{R}$. This class even contains realistic target densities for which random walk or Langevin MH are not geometrically ergodic. Three simulation studies are given to demonstrate the mixing property and superiority of RDMH to standard MH algorithms on real line. A share-price return data is also analyzed and the results are compared with those available in the literature

The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a high-resolution convective permitting model

Flash flooding is often caused by sub-hourly rainfall extremes. Here, we examine southern UK sub-hourly 10 min rainfall from Met Office state-of-the-art convective-permitting model simulations for the present and future climate. Observational studies have shown that the duration of rainfall can decrease with temperature in summer in some regions. The duration decrease coincides with an intensification of sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This suggests that rainfall duration and sub-hourly rainfall intensity may change in future under climate change with important implications for future changes in flash flooding risk. The simulations show clear intensification of sub-hourly rainfall, but we fail to detect any decrease in rainfall duration. In fact, model results suggest the opposite with a slight (probably insignificant) lengthening of both extreme and non-extreme rainfall events in the future. The lengthening is driven by rainfall intensification without clear changes in the shape of the event profile. Other metrics are also examined, including the relationship between intense 10 min rainfall and temperature, and return levels changes; all are consistent with results found for hourly rainfall. No evaluation of model performance at the sub-hourly timescale is possible, highlighting the need for high-quality sub-hourly observations. Such sub-hourly observations will advance our understanding of the future risks of flash flooding

Some remarks on PM2.5

Since 1970, the General Physics Department of «Università degli Studi di Torino» has carried out a project research, on inorganic solid particulate matter. The special issue of Annals of Geophysics, published for Professor Giorgio Fiocco’s 70th birthday, gives us the possibility to make some important remarks on this topic, focusing on PM2.5. This has been possible using all the old and new experimental data of the measures made by the authors of this paper since 1970

Absence of Evidence for MHC–Dependent Mate Selection within HapMap Populations

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) of immunity genes has been reported to influence mate choice in vertebrates, and a recent study presented genetic evidence for this effect in humans. Specifically, greater dissimilarity at the MHC locus was reported for European-American mates (parents in HapMap Phase 2 trios) than for non-mates. Here we show that the results depend on a few extreme data points, are not robust to conservative changes in the analysis procedure, and cannot be reproduced in an equivalent but independent set of European-American mates. Although some evidence suggests an avoidance of extreme MHC similarity between mates, rather than a preference for dissimilarity, limited sample sizes preclude a rigorous investigation. In summary, fine-scale molecular-genetic data do not conclusively support the hypothesis that mate selection in humans is influenced by the MHC locus

Glue ear, hearing loss and IQ:an association moderated by the child's home environment

BACKGROUND: Glue ear or otitis media with effusion (OME) is common in children and may be associated with hearing loss (HL). For most children it has no long lasting effects on cognitive development but it is unclear whether there are subgroups at higher risk of sequelae. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between a score comprising the number of times a child had OME and HL (OME/HL score) in the first four/five years of life and IQ at age 4 and 8. To examine whether any association between OME/HL and IQ is moderated by socioeconomic, child or family factors. METHODS: Prospective, longitudinal cohort study: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). 1155 children tested using tympanometry on up to nine occasions and hearing for speech (word recognition) on up to three occasions between age 8 months and 5 years. An OME/HL score was created and associations with IQ at ages 4 and 8 were examined. Potential moderators included a measure of the child's cognitive stimulation at home (HOME score). RESULTS: For the whole sample at age 4 the group with the highest 10% OME/HL scores had performance IQ 5 points lower [95% CI -9, -1] and verbal IQ 6 points lower [95% CI -10, -3] than the unaffected group. By age 8 the evidence for group differences was weak. There were significant interactions between OME/HL and the HOME score: those with high OME/HL scores and low 18 month HOME scores had lower IQ at age 4 and 8 than those with high OME/HL scores and high HOME scores. Adjusted mean differences ranged from 5 to 8 IQ points at age 4 and 8. CONCLUSIONS: The cognitive development of children from homes with lower levels of cognitive stimulation is susceptible to the effects of glue ear and hearing loss

Shelf‐Break Upwelling and Productivity Over the North Kenya Banks: The Importance of Large‐Scale Ocean Dynamics

The North Kenya Banks (NKBs) have recently emerged as a new frontier for food security and could become an economically important fishery for Kenya with improved resources providing better accessibility. Little research has been done on the mechanisms supporting high fish productivity over the NKBs with information on annual and interannual environmental variability lacking. Here we use a high‐resolution, global, biogeochemical ocean model with remote sensing observations to demonstrate that the ocean circulation exerts an important control on the productivity over the NKBs. During the Northeast Monsoon, which occurs from December to February, upwelling occurs along the Kenyan coast, which is topographically enhanced over the NKBs. Additionally, enhanced upwelling events, associated with widespread cool temperatures, elevated chlorophyll, nutrients, primary production, and phytoplankton biomass, can occur over this region. Eight such modeled events, characterized by primary production exceeding 1.3 g C/m−2/day, were found to occur during January or February from 1993–2015. Even though the upwelling is always rooted to the NKBs, the position, spatial extent, and intensity of the upwelling exhibit considerable interannual variability. The confluence zone between the Somali Current and East African Coastal Current (referred to as the Somali‐Zanzibar Confluence Zone) forms during the Northeast Monsoon and is highly variable. We present evidence that when the Somali‐Zanzibar Confluence Zone is positioned further south, it acts to enhance shelf‐edge upwelling and productivity over the NKBs. These findings provide the first indication of the environmental controls that need to be considered when developing plans for the sustainable exploitation of the NKB fishery

Brucellosis remains a neglected disease inthe developing world: a call forinterdisciplinary action

Brucellosis places significant burdens on the human healthcare system and limits the economic growth of individuals, communities, and nations where such development is especially important to diminish the prevalence of poverty. The implementation of public policy focused on mitigating the socioeconomic effects of brucellosis in human and animal populations is desperately needed. When developing a plan to mitigate the associated consequences, it is vital to consider both the abstract and quantifiable effects. This requires an interdisciplinary and collaborative, or One Health, approach that consists of public education, the development of an infrastructure for disease surveillance and reporting in both veterinary and medical fields, and campaigns for control in livestock and wildlife species

The Galaxy Structure-Redshift Relationship

There exists a gradual, but persistent, evolutionary effect in the galaxy population such that galaxy structure and morphology change with redshift. This galaxy structure-redshift relationship is such that an increasingly large fraction of all bright and massive galaxies at redshifts 2 < z < 3 are morphologically peculiar at wavelengths from rest-frame ultraviolet to rest-frame optical. There are however examples of morphologically selected spirals and ellipticals at all redshifts up to z ~ 3. At lower redshift, the bright galaxy population smoothly transforms into normal ellipticals and spirals. The rate of this transformation strongly depends on redshift, with the swiftest evolution occurring between 1 < z < 2. This review characterizes the galaxy structure-redshift relationship, discusses its various physical causes, and how these are revealing the mechanisms responsible for galaxy formation.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures. Invited Review to appear in "Penetrating Bars Through Masks of Cosmic Dust: The Hubble Tuning Fork Strikes A New Note", ed. D. Block et a

Preserving the impossible: conservation of soft-sediment hominin footprint sites and strategies for three-dimensional digital data capture.

Human footprints provide some of the most publically emotive and tangible evidence of our ancestors. To the scientific community they provide evidence of stature, presence, behaviour and in the case of early hominins potential evidence with respect to the evolution of gait. While rare in the geological record the number of footprint sites has increased in recent years along with the analytical tools available for their study. Many of these sites are at risk from rapid erosion, including the Ileret footprints in northern Kenya which are second only in age to those at Laetoli (Tanzania). Unlithified, soft-sediment footprint sites such these pose a significant geoconservation challenge. In the first part of this paper conservation and preservation options are explored leading to the conclusion that to 'record and digitally rescue' provides the only viable approach. Key to such strategies is the increasing availability of three-dimensional data capture either via optical laser scanning and/or digital photogrammetry. Within the discipline there is a developing schism between those that favour one approach over the other and a requirement from geoconservationists and the scientific community for some form of objective appraisal of these alternatives is necessary. Consequently in the second part of this paper we evaluate these alternative approaches and the role they can play in a 'record and digitally rescue' conservation strategy. Using modern footprint data, digital models created via optical laser scanning are compared to those generated by state-of-the-art photogrammetry. Both methods give comparable although subtly different results. This data is evaluated alongside a review of field deployment issues to provide guidance to the community with respect to the factors which need to be considered in digital conservation of human/hominin footprints